Thursday 4 December 2014

Sanchez vs Costa: who has settled better?

Following another Alexis Sanchez goal to rescue Arsenal, Arsene Wenger  was prompted to say that no player had adapted quicker to the Premier League. Sanchez has nine goals in thirteen Premier League appearances so far for the Gunners, he works out at scoring every 117 minutes on average. He also has three goals in the Champions League so far and Arsenal fans will be hoping he can keep up that rate too.

Of his nine Premier League goals, 5 have come at the Emirates and 4 away from home. Without his goals Arsenal would be 7 points worse off, giving them a points total of 16, the same amount as Villa. Sanchez has scored 41% of Arsenal’s goals so far this season, that outlines how vital he has been to their side.

It’s undoubtedly true that Sanchez has taken to the Premier League like a duck to water, but quicker than anyone else? That is a very bold claim. Let’s compare him to another big summer signing who has hit the ground running and see if Wenger’s claims check out.

The other exciting summer striker signing from La Liga was Diego Costa, the Spanish striker cost Chelsea a hefty £30 million but he is looking worth every penny of it so far.  Costa has eleven Premier League goals so far this season, two more than  Sanchez. That’s from 11 appearances to, meaning Costa has found the net on average every 83 minutes, an unbelievable conversion rate.

Arguably Sanchez plays a deeper role than Costa who is the focal point of Chelsea’s attacks so we’d maybe expect him to get fewer goals. Sanchez has two assists to his name so far this season, Costa has none. Costa creates fewer chances (1.6) than Sanchez (2.6).

Without Costa’s goals Chelsea would only be five points worse off, still top of the league, that probably says more about how good the rest of Chelsea’s team is though. Costa has scored in 8 separate games, bagging a hat trick against Swansea and a couple against Everton. Sanchez too has scored in 8 separate games. There is little difference in the number of shots the two players have per game, Costa with 3.1 and Sanchez with 3.0.

Both players have been praised for their work rate, that has been identified as one of the reasons that they have settled so well in England. Defending from the front has become an important part of the modern striker’s game. Costa averages 0.7 tackles and 0.4 interceptions, Sanchez is yet to make an interception and averages 0.4 tackles per game. Clearly, they are both doing more off the ball than those statistics suggest, it’s more about closing players and putting them under pressure.

Both sides would undoubtedly be worse off without their new talismanic forwards, I think Sanchez is more important to Arsenal right now but that is arguably because they’ve been without Giroud and lack the strength in depth Chelsea have. You still get the feeling Costa isn’t 100% fit.

It’ll be interesting to see how both players fare over Christmas, with both used to having a winter break. Who has settled better? I think Costa settled faster, he grabbed 7 goals in his first four games but Sanchez has certainly caught him up and he is vital to Arsenal right now. That said both have adapted extremely well to the Premier League, they’ve lived up to the hype and their respective price tags.


 Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Wednesday 8 October 2014

Blind leading the blind

With all the talent to come through the door at Old Trafford this season the least exciting was probably Daley Blind. This is not a criticism, I’m a huge fan of the Dutchman but he’s not going to light up Old Trafford in the same way that Di Maria or Falcao might, his job however, is probably the most important in this United team.

Against Everton Van Gaal lined up with a midfield of Di Maria, Blind and Valencia, with Mata deployed further forward. That’s leaving a lot of work for Daley Blind, whilst Di Maria and Valencia are industrious and will certainly put in a shift, they are at heart attack minded wide players. Blind is essentially tasked with the job that most teams entrust at least two if not three men to do.

In his 4 Premier League appearances Blind has made an average of 3 tackles and 2.8 interceptions per game. Only Phil Jones and Rafael have made more interceptions and only Jones and Herrera have made more tackles. His importance to the midfield is apparent from that alone. When you add in an average of 3.8 clearances per game, his defensive contributions are added to.

In comparison Di Maria offers little defensively, he’s made just 4 tackles and 7 interceptions in his 5 games at Old Trafford, Valencia fares a little better, with an average of 2.8 tackles and 2.2 interceptions. This shows how much work Blind has to get through, if United wish to control games in the manner they’ve become accustomed to and to stop leaking so many goals they will need more cover in midfield.

There’s no doubt that Blind’s versatility is in part why he was signed, he’s at comfortable at centre back as he is at left back or in the role he currently occupies. Given his versatility it’s not surprising he’s such a well-rounded player.

His work is as much off the ball as it is on the ball, breaking up play is as important as starting attacks. His average pass accuracy is 88.9% and Blind plays an average of 67.8 passes, the 10th highest of all players in the league. His passing range is varied, he has played 3.3 long balls per game so far, so he can release United on the counter or switch the play if needed. Unsurprisingly, Blind hasn’t created many chances for his team mates, his role is that of the middle man, by occupying space he can receive the ball and feed those who supply the goals.

Presumably Herrera will replace Valencia when fit and that will add some more solidity to the centre of the park. It’s clearly a problem of having such a plethora of attacking talent that fitting all those players in isn’t going to be easy and the solution seems to be removing a man from midfield. At the minute United aren’t a balanced side, there’s too much emphasis on attack and that isn’t sustainable, they’d benefit more from dropping one of the strikers for more midfield cover.



 Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Thursday 2 October 2014

HIghlighting Manchester City's struggles in Europe

Tuesday’s draw with Roma was the fourth successive time that Manchester City have failed to win their opening home game in the Champions League, that’s surprising given how the Ethiad is a domestic fortress on which  City have built league success. It’s a result which points towards the larger trend of City failing to live up to their domestic prowess in Europe’s elite competition.

Last season was the first time that they managed to make it out of the group stage, it must be said that they have faced tough draws in each of their four seasons in the Champions League, they’ve been pitted against Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund to name but a few.

There has been talk since City reached the Champions League of a lack of experience in the competition letting the side down, and while that may be true of the team it is not true of the players that make it up. Yaya Toure has won the Champions League with Barcelona, Demichelis was part of the Malaga side that progressed so far under Pellegrini a few seasons ago and many of these City players are now entering their fourth year in the competition. These are world class players who have won countless domestic and international trophies, there should be no doubting their ability to produce on the biggest stage and yet doubts remain.

A quick look at the statistics is enough to highlight the disparity between City in the Champions League and Premier League, in all but their first season in the competition they boasted considerably higher possession and pass accuracy in the Premier League than in Europe. Perhaps not surprising given the calibre of opponents is higher in the Champions League and City’s game is not overly based on possession, like Barcelona’s is. Also the fact that this is a sample of 6 games in the Champions League and if two of those are against a Guardiola side it’s understandable that City would have less possession. What it does point to though is that City have to make a shift from being the side that dominates the game to one that is on the back foot when in Europe. Maybe they’re not used to being the underdogs and that change of expectations could cause problems but this also highlights the need to paly differently in Europe to in the Premier League, maybe throw in another midfielder and sacrifice a striker.



Defensively the statistics also point out to less impressive performances in the Champions League. Manchester City have conceded more shots in the Champions League than Premier League in each of their four seasons in the competition. On average there’s also a trend for less tackles in the Champions League, a bit surprising given that they’ve had less of the ball on the whole, suggesting they’re not doing enough without the ball. Although in the past few seasons they have made more interceptions in the Champions League, that hasn’t been the case so far this season, again this supports the call for a 5 man midfield I think.

Going forward there’s cause for concern too, City are having fewer shots in Europe than in the Premier League and also fewer shots on target. That’s disappointing given the amount of attacking talent they’ve amassed. Again, this could be a result of simply playing better opponents more frequently but if City want to be the best in Europe they need to beat the best and should be aiming to play with the attacking swagger we’ve become accustomed to in the Premier League. City are also completing fewer dribbles in the Champions League, they’re being afforded less time and space than they might be used to. Also City are caught offside considerably more when playing in the Champions League than when playing domestically, that ties in with them having less possession and at times playing on the counter, they’ll be looking for long balls in behind more frequently and that would lead to more offsides. More offsides means more attacks will be broken down and is a component in City having fewer shots.



Overall it seems that the grumblings about City’s performances in Europe are justified, whether or not it’s down to them being bad or their opponents being better is tough to say, I feel it’s a combination of the two. Watching City in Europe they look lethargic at times and don’t always look up to the game, almost in awe of their opponents. Whether or not there’s a quick fix is hard to say but it’s looking like it’ll be another tough European campaign ahead of them.

 Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com


Wednesday 1 October 2014

Newcastle shooting themselves in the foot

I was looking through some of the Premier League statistics (as you do) and something caught my eye, the team with the joint highest number of shots per game is Newcastle, only Chelsea and Liverpool have managed more. So why do Alan Pardew’s side find themselves lingering at the foot of the table?

First of all, on average, only 3.3 of those shots have been on target. That’s the fourth worst total in the league, so in fact only 21% of Newcastle’s shots are on target. So more interesting than shots or shots on target is this conversion figure, the number of shots a side is getting on target. When you look at that figure it makes a lot more sense as to why Newcastle sit second bottom and have scored just 5 goals this season.

Ronald Koeman’s Southampton have an impressive conversion rate of 45.5%, the highest in the league, closely followed by Swansea’s of around 41%. Not that surprising given the stellar starts to the season these two sides have made. The side with the lowest conversion is Aston Villa, just 20% of their shots are on target, despite their bright start to the season Villa have scored just 4 goals, their success has been based more on a solid defence, so this shouldn’t be too surprising either.

A further look at Newcastle’s shooting reveals something else interesting and another reason for their lack of goals. Just under half (43%) of their shots have come from outside the area, with 11% of shots coming from within the 6 yard box. It suggests Newcastle are panicking when they get near the box and shooting instead of trying to build up play patiently and work a better opening. This theory is backed up by the fact that just 29% of touches by Newcastle players are in the final third.

Admittedly, this would be okay if Newcastle were playing fast, incisive counter attacking football but this isn’t the case, the build up is laboured but also lacks the patience to work the ball into good positions. They might have themselves caught in a bit of a vicious circle here, especially at home, the fans are rightly upset at the level of performance this season and a backwards pass is more likely to be met with groans than at times when results are going well.

If you compare similar statistics to Southampton the differences are clear. Under Koeman Saints have had 35% of their shots from outside of the box, more shots from inside the box has given them more shots on target and that has led to a greater number of goals. Interestingly, Southampton have the same percentage (29) of touches in the final third. It’s clear that they’re making those touches count more than Newcastle.

Another statistic which highlights Newcastle’s lack of forward creativity is their lack of offsides so far this season, they’ve had just 1 in 6 games. To offer a comparison, Southampton have had 2.3 offsides per game, the second highest in the division. Obviously, you don’t want your players to be offside constantly but a higher number of offsides would suggest players making runs in behind. That rings true with Newcastle, from watching them this season they’ve looked very static going forward, lacking movement or runners from deep, and have also seen their main striker isolated a lot of the time.


Whether or not Pardew can doing anything about this remains to be seen, maybe he should encourage his players to work the ball in to the box and be more patient. To be honest this only half the problem, Newcastle’s defensive concerns are probably more cause for concern.

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Sunday 28 September 2014

Yanga-Mbwia shows Newcastle what they're missing

Newcastle have been defensively shoddy so far this season and that’s almost definitely putting it kindly. So far Alan Pardew’s side have shipped 11 goals in 5 games, an average of over 2. Whilst Pardew was widely praised pre-season for the business he carried out, he failed to strengthen defensively, Janmaat was the only defender brought in and that was as a direct replacement for the departing Debuchy.

It was perhaps somewhat surprising then that French defender Mapou Yanga-Mbwia was allowed to leave on transfer deadline day to Roma on a season long loan. Yanga-Mbwia who joined in January 2013 had failed to make an impact at Newcastle, mainly because his first team chances had been limited and when he has been given chances it’s been due to injuries or suspensions and he’s often had to fill in at full back. His versatility is another great trait and another reason why it’s surprising Newcastle let him go on loan, given their lack of options defensively. That said, it’s certainly the best move for the player, he will be hoping for regular football under Rudi Garcia at Roma and could get experience of Champions League football.  

Yanga-Mbwia has made 3 starts since his deadline day move to Italy and Roma have conceded just once in those three games, perhaps it’s worth noting that’s the only goal they’ve let in this season.  His place in the team is currently because of the injury to Davide Astori, however, you feel if his level of performance continues Yanga-Mbwia may be able to cement his place in the starting line up.


In a recent interview Yanga-Mbwia claimed his move to Newcastle had been a mistake and he had struggled to adapt to the physicality of the Premier League, I imagine that wasn’t helped by him playing out of position. He added that the style of football in Italy is more similar to that of France, highlighting the way “They play more football”, presumably that is in reference to a more passing game.

That makes sense given his pass accuracy of 92.3% for Roma and he is making 56 passes per game, he is clearly very comfortable on the ball. However, he is as composed as he is on the ball defensively, making an average of 2 tackles and 2.7 interception per game, figures which are considerably higher than Astori’s (although he has only played one full league game this season).  He has only committed 2 fouls in his 3 games for Roma, that too speaks of the composure and leadership which was a times lacking at Newcastle.
                                                                                                                                  
His statistics are considerably higher than at Newcastle last year where he managed 17 starts. His pass accuracy was just 82% last season, so perhaps he is better suited to a more continental style of football than Newcastle are playing at the minute. He also averaged 1.7 tackles and 1 interceptions per game in his time at St James’ Park last year. His statistics are much more comparable to his time at Montpellier (2.2 tackles, 2.8 interceptions in 2011/12) now he’s at Roma, it seems he’s much more at home on the continent.

Admittedly three games is a very small sample size and it’ll be interesting to see how he does over the course of the season but I can imagine Alan Pardew may be regretting letting him go on loan at the moment. Let’s not forget that this is a player who captained his Montpellier side to the Ligue 1 title and while the player himself has spoken about how he struggled in England who knows how he would have fared given more games at centre back and a regular spell in the team.

Last season Roma finished runners up in Italy and will be hoping to go one better this time. Next up for Yanga-Mbwia and Roma: a trip to the Ethiad, he’ll be hoping they fare much better than Newcastle did when they faced the champions on the opening day of the season.

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Thursday 28 August 2014

Where does Di Maria fit in at Old Trafford?

The signing of Angel Di Maria from Real Madrid is considered by many to be a coup for Manchester United, they paid a record breaking British transfer fee of almost £60m for the Argentinian international. Such a transfer fee is bound to draw much speculation and put pressure on the player to perform.

Di Maria’s pedigree is not in question, he made 17 assists in La Liga for Real last season, the most in the Spanish top flight and also the most in Europe’s top 5 leagues, with Rooney and van Persie In the side United have the players who can finish off those chances. He did only manage 4 goals last season, a tally he’ll be expected to improve on if he is to justify his price tag. A lack of goals is also an issue considering how reliant United were on Rooney and van persie last season, the pair scoring 29 (17 and 12 respectively) of United’s 64 goals, they lacked goals from other sources and Di Maria will surely have to become a source of goals.

The real issue is where Di Maria will fit into Van Gaal’s United side, so far the Dutchman has persisted with a 3-4-3 system, which hasn’t really worked out.  United lack natural wing backs, Luke Shaw is predicted to fill the void on the left when he returns from injury, but the right side is a position yet to be filled. I’m not sure Di Maria is the man to fill it either, despite being a right sided player.

He made just 1.3 tackles and 0.6 interceptions per game last season. A lot more is needed if he is to play as a wing back, in a role where defending is just as important as the attacking work.

Di Maria’s natural position is on the right, he predominantly played on the right of a midfield 3 whilst at Real Madrid last season, should United use that system he could prosper once more. That would almost certainly involve playing a back 4, which United’s defenders would be more comfortable with but may not be the direction Van Gaal wants to go in. 

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Sunday 18 May 2014

Have Bayern improved this season?

When Bayern Munich successfully defended their Bundesliga title with a record breaking 7 games left plaudits were rightly so rained down upon the German champions and their new manager Pep Guardiola. To emulate last season’s success was never going to be easy, Bayern would have to be the first team to retain the Champions League, the fact that that hasn’t happened is no reason to say that Bayern have gone backwards, but the manner in which that happened should to lead some questions being asked.

Last season when Bayern dismantled Barcelona in the Champions League semi-final they were a joy to watch, it was counter attacking football at its best, a 7-0 aggregate victory seemed to signal beginning of the end of possession based football. Given that, Guardiola’s appointment seems a little odd, especially because it was the team that he had helped build who were beaten so emphatically.

Fast forward to this year and the 5-0 aggregate defeat at the hands of Real Madrid certainly seems to agree with that. Real who are so adept at playing against a Barca-esque team, they’ve been doing it for years were hardly troubled by a Bayern side that has been recast in their new manager’s image.

From looking at Bayern’s Bunesliga performances there’s certainly a difference between this year and last. Before securing the Bundesliga title Bayern went undefeated; a particularly impressive feat.



In terms of games won the record is identical, the only difference in results is that Bayern drew one more game last year than this, but then they won the title won game earlier this season.

The real difference is in terms of possession, hardly surprising when you consider the brand of football Guardiola is renowned for playing.  Bayern’s average possession per game increased from 63.6% to 71.1% from last season. However, with that possession Bayern had only 1.5 shots per game but more importantly, only 0.1 more shots on target, an increase from 7.5 to 7.6. So despite having more of the ball and controlling the game more Bayern are doing less with their possession. In fact, they had more shots per possession (0.270) in 2012/13 than this season (0.263).

This highlights the problem Bayern now face, in dominating possession in the manner which they have this season they have become more predictable and so become easier to play against. Perhaps this was not so evident in the Bundesliga, where Bayern still had the wherewithal to break down their opponents, but it becomes more apparent when you consider their Champions League record. Especially the game against Real Madrid who have so much experience of playing against such a possession based approach. Even Manchester United, who had a woeful year by their standards, came close to putting Bayern out.


Breaking down their passes per game makes this predictability more apparent. Bayern played more passes, with a higher pass accuracy this season. Interestingly, they also played more long balls this season than last, but as a percentage of their total passes it is lower (12% last season, compared to 10% this season).

Given the ability of their wide men, Robben and Ribery, and Mandzukic’s aerial prowess it’s surprising they didn’t play more crosses. Although that may be in part due to the lack of game time both Ribery and Robben had this season, much to the grievance of the former. It’ll be interesting to see how Lewandowski fits in with this style of play, given Dortmund’s approach is less possession based and he too is very strong in the air.

Less crosses suggests Bayern played through the middle more, and that’s certainly the case, last season Bayern played an average of 26% through the middle, compared to 29% this season.

Bayern were offside fewer times 1.9 compared to 3.4 last season, whilst that is a positive and corresponds to Bayern’s greater control of the game, what it also illustrates is a team playing less direct football, maybe taking less risks in order to keep the ball. That’s also shown by fewer through balls per game this season.

All this leads to an increasing sense of one dimensionality about their play, if they continue in this fashion teams will soon get wise to it, as they have done to Barca’s style of play in Spain. As long as they continue to win matches and trophies it’s unlikely anything will change, but on the evidence of this season that might be sooner than we think.  

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com 

Sunday 20 April 2014

Kane proving he is more than able

Whilst Tim Sherwood’s future as Tottenham hangs in the balance, one factor which is certainly is in his favour is his willingness to give youth a chance and also his decision to make team selections based on form rather than reputation. Something Sandro is probably feeling less than happy about right now.

Sherwood’s willingness to promote from within and give younger players a chance is certainly a result of his having being a coach at the club.  Promoting a manager from within the club then results in players being promoted from the youth set up to the first team.

Nabil Bentaleb, the Algerian 19 year old holding midfielder was the first to prosper from Sherwood’s youthful policy and has become a firm fixture in Sherwood’s Spurs side making 13 appearances so far this season. However, despite good performances he has not featured since the 4-0 defeat at the hands of Liverpool. 

Sherwood has turned to another youngster as he has returned to the 4-4-2, system, or variations of, which he used when he first began his tenure as manager at White Hart Lane. The first time around that system saw Emmanuel Adebayor prosper and look like the world class player he was once considered to be. In its second reincarnation it is Harry Kane, the 20 year old English striker who is taking the chance he has been afforded. The fact that a 20 year old is keeping out Soldado, a player Spurs signed for in excess of £20m in the summer, speaks volumes of the performances of the youngster, but also of the torrid performances of Soldado.

The Spanish striker has failed to find his feet in his first season at White Hart Lane, Soldado has managed just 6 goals in the Premier League so far this season, just two of which have been from open play, the other 4 have been penalties. Soldado has also provided 5 assists for his team mates and averaged 2.1 shots per game.

In contrast, Harry Kane has scored 3 Premier League goals so far this season, all of which have come in his last 3 starts. Given Kane’s performances and prolificacy, coupled with Sherwood’s penchant for selecting his team based on form, it looks as though Kane will continue to get chances as the season draws to a close.

Kane’s 3 goals make him Spurs’ 6th highest goal scorer this season, a total he’ll certainly be looking to add to in the remaining three fixtures. He also averages 2.6 shots per game, the highest in the squad, although the fact he has played fewer games is a factor in that, which speaks of the confidence he has in himself and his ability to take chances. From his 18 shots this season to have scored 3 goals shows he has a clinical edge in front of goal.

Two of Kane’s three goals have been headers, he wins 1.4 headers per game on average, and the other was a finish from close range. Although the goals have not been remarkable they demonstrate more, they show that he has the positional sense, which will always guarantee goals.

Undoubtedly, Kane has profited from the fact that Tottenham’s season has dwindled out to some extent. Where they more than outsiders in the race for fourth place Kane may not have been offered the chances that he has. However, he has more than justified his selection and he will continue to grow in stature and confidence in the coming weeks.


Should he continue to score at anywhere near the rate he is currently, Kane will certainly have a large number of suitors should Spurs wish to loan out the striker next season. That decision will rest with whoever the manager is next season, should it be Sherwood you imagine Kane would continue to be given chances, if not his performances at the back end of this season have shown he is certainly worth considering for a starting position. 

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Thursday 3 April 2014

Will someone take a chance on Hughes?

At the start of March, somewhat prematurely, the Football League decided to announce their players of the season. The best young player in the Championship, according to this panel, was Derby County’s Will Hughes. Past winners of the award have included Gareth Bale and Wilfried Zaha.

Derby currently sit in 4th place and will be hoping to ensure a playoff position in the coming weeks, with that comes the possibility of promotion and a chance for Steve McClaren to prove himself at the highest level once more. Understandably there’s been a lot of buzz around Will Hughes, especially when the transfer market rolls around, although at the minute Derby and the Championship seem to be the right place for Hughes to reach his utmost potential. At just 18 years of age he is certainly one of the brightest young English midfielders, having already made 7 appearances for the Under 21 side.

He looks to be mature beyond his age, with an aptitude for reading the game and being able to pick the perfect pass when the moment is right. This is shown by the fact that Hughes averages 42.3 passes per game, the highest of midfielders in the Derby squad and does with an accuracy of 86.8%, the highest of all of the Rams players. In fact his pass accuracy is the third highest of all players in the Championship and is marginally the highest amongst players to have played more than 20 games.

Hughes has been so important for Derby this season, starting 33 games and appearing as a substitute twice, although an injury has kept him out of late. For such trust to be placed in such a young player is something of a rarity and it speaks volumes of the way that Hughes conducts himself on the pitch, he plays with a level of responsibility shown by the fact he misplaces so few of his passes and is dispossessed just 1.7 times per game. Add to that the fact that he is making 2.9 tackles per game, the joint 7th highest in the division, and you begin to get a sense of the fact that Hughes is a complete midfielder and doesn’t shirk his defensive responsibilities. With that come the fact that he commits more fouls, an average of 1.5 per game, which is something he can look to improve on, although it does show his determination and passion, qualities that are often overlooked in footballers.

Hughes’ influence on the game is shown by the fact that he has provided 5 assists so far this season and scored 3 goals himself. His goal return is impressive given that he averages just 1.1 shots per game, whilst he is creating 1.6 chances for his teammates per game. There’s so much potential in his game, you can imagine how those figures might grow exponentially if he was playing at a top club.

The fact that he plays a lot of passes and that many of them are short, indicates that even when he is not directly influencing the game he is helping Derby keep the ball and contributing to the fact that Derby have the third highest average possession in the Championship, similarly they have the third best passing accuracy. There’s no doubt that those figures have been heavily impacted on by Hughes’ performances but also they show why he’s been judged to be the best young player in the Championship: Derby play in a manner which suits the way that Hughes play.

Whilst Hughes’ statistics are impressive, and there’s no doubt in the fact that they are, what they represent is far more the potential that he has as a player. It’s also worth noting that he’s playing with, and more importantly against, players who have much more experience than him. To be doing so well, especially in such a competitive and important part of the pitch shows just how good he can become. That said, a big money move would place a lot of pressure and expectation on him, for Hughes the best scenario is probably promotion with Derby and a chance to acclimatise to the Premier League. If not, he needs to ensure he will be given ample chance to progress and impress in the top division, here’s hoping that he does so.


Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Wednesday 2 April 2014

Champions League Review: Possession Isn't Everything

If Tuesday’s Champions League games revealed anything it’s that there is more to the game of football than possession. Both games ended in 1-1 draws but the parallels don’t stop there, Bayern had 74% possession and pass accuracy of 91% against Manchester United, whilst Barcelona had 71% possession and 90% pass accuracy against Atletico Madrid.

Despite Ryan Giggs’ protestations Manchester United were clearly underdogs ahead of the tie with the newly crowned German champions. Such has been Bayern’s dominance this season that many claimed it’d be a question of how many rather than what the result itself would be. Given the injuries that United faced it’s hardly surprising that this was the view that many took, but perhaps more surprising that it wasn’t the outcome.    

Although United looked particularly vulnerable out wide early on they grew into the game and should have gone in to the lead when Danny Welbeck was presented with a one on one but opted to chip Neuer when a less cultured finish might have beaten the German keeper. It was United who took the lead, with a Vidic header from a Rooney corner, it showcased Bayern’s vulnerability and their use of zonal could be a weakness Moyes looks to exploit in the second leg.

The lead only lasted 8 minutes when substitute Mandzukic knocked down a Robben cross for Schweingsteiger to rifle the ball past De Gea. The scorer’s impact on the game did not finish there, he received a second yellow card, meaning he will miss the second leg and while Bayern have a multitude of talented midfielders to call on his experience will be missed.  It was nice to see Rooney not react to Schewiengsteiger’s claims he dived, the England man just shrugged nonchalantly, Rooney is beginning to show the experience he has.

Bayern had 16 shots, but just 3 of them were on target whilst the United defence managed to get in the way of half their attempts, blocking 8 shots. Despite having almost 3 times less possession United had more shots on target (4) from their considerably fewer (6) attempts. United also restricted Bayern to shots from long range, half their shots came from outside the area, compared to just 17% of United’s ( although that is skewed by the small sample size of 6).

It’s interesting that Bayern opted for Guardiola as a coach, given how last year Bayern tore what was essentially his Barca team apart, 7-0 on aggregate. The result signified a shift in power, an indicator that possession may not be the best way to win games and that a quick counter pressing game was more effective. However, Bayern seem to have taken a step back, their game is now heavily reliant on possession and although Guardiola claimed they were to be a plan A-Z team and not just a plan A team like his Barca were, last night didn’t show that. He has removed the fluidity and pace which made last season’s Bayern so ominous.

Against possession based play teams will park the bus and play on the counter and last night illustrated that it was just as effective a way to play. Bayern played 701 short passes, at times in places it wasn’t necessary, United were happy to let them have the ball in their own half and only really became concerned when they neared the final third. But when they presses Bayern they didn’t look comfortable on the ball, particularly not Neuer who skewed a few clearances whilst being closed down.

Guardiola’s former club Barcelona could only manage a 1-1 draw at home to La Liga leaders Atletico and their away goal will have Simeone’s men believing they can reach the semi-finals. Especially as Pique is now out for 4 weeks added to the lengthy lay-off facing Valdes. Earlier in the season Simeone said he doesn’t care about possession and last night illustrated that. Atletico are very effective at what they do, their defence is one of the best in the world right now and going forward they have the players capable of doing damage. Whislt a lot of the goal scoring onus has fallen on Diego Costa this season, his hamstring injury last night could be bad news for Atletico’s title and Champions league dreams.


Barca managed 19 shots but just 6 on target, whereas Atletico had 2 of their 6 attempts on target. The statistics are remarkably similar to the United Bayern game, but whereas Atletico will fancy their chances going in to the second leg it’s take a brave man to back United to go through against Bayern.

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Wednesday 26 March 2014

Martinez continues to dream of the Champions League

Everton’s 3-0 win away at Newcastle on Tuesday moved them on to 57 points, 6 clear of 7th placed Manchester United with a game in hand, meaning Roberto Martinez looks to have succeeded in attaining European football at the first time of asking. However, Martinez and Everton could be forgiven for looking ahead and dreaming of the Champions League.

Arsenal, currently occupy the 4th Champions League position and although they were until recently considered title contenders they look to have lost the early season momentum which saw them tipped by a few as dark horses for the league.  Despite that, Everton are just 6 points behind with a game in hand, win that and the gap is just three. Add to that the fact that Arsenal have to travel to Goodison Park next Sunday and suddenly it isn’t so unreasonable for Everton to dream of playing in Europe’s premier competition.

 Everton have been a fresh of air under Martinez, with an average of 56% possession and 83% passing accuracy. A transition that many expected given Martinez’s style of play at Wigan, but one that few would have expected could have gone so well.

Everton have won their last 4 games in the Premier League, in the last two the contribution of Ross Barkley has been vital to their success. Scoring in both of the games, a close range header which turned out to be the winner against Swansea and a wonderful solo effort against Newcastle, Barkley has brought his total for the season to 6.

His goal against Swansea demonstrated positional maturity which will only develop in the coming years if he continues to be given chances, whilst the one against Newcastle highlighted his confidence and ability on the ball. Barkley makes an average of 2.3 dribbles per game and his skill on the ball, not only that but teams aren’t sure how to stop him once he gets going shown by the fact that he is fouled on average 2.2 times each game. His performances this season have been enough to suggest that Barkley will be in Roy Hodgson’s world cup squad, something Martinez certainly believes.

Barkely’s performances will in doubt have been helped by having the experience of Gareth Barry behind him. Shown by the fact that Barkley makes just 1.1 tackles per game, Barry sitting allows Barkley to express himself more and not be burdened by defensive responsibility. Regardless of where Everton finish at the end of the season they must surely look to make that deal a permanent one.  Barry has 3 goals and 4 assists so far this season and he too has been playing well enough to get into the world cup squad, although that is unlikely to happen. He looks to have reinvigorated his career and regular match time has seen him recapture the form of his early career.

Another of Everton’s loan players, Romelu Lukaku has been their top scorer so far this season. With 12 goals and 6 assists in 21 games so far this season, perhaps Chelsea are regretting letting the Belgian go again. Lukaku has strength, pace  and power, coupled with good feet and technical ability, to call him the heir to Drogba’s throne isn’t unreasonable. The problem for Everton next season will surely be replacing those goals, when you look at how West Brom have struggled for goals this season you can see how they’ve failed to fill the void, and they aren’t competing in Europe as Everton surely will be next season. To replace Lukaku will not be easy and certainly won’t be cheap, although the attraction of European football would be a bonus.

Whether it’s Europa League or Champions League Everton will be flying the flag for England in Europe next season and will be hooping they can have as much success there as they have in the Premier League. Although, perhaps they should look at the plight of Swansea this season and proceed with an element of trepidation. 


 Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Thursday 20 March 2014

Flannagan prospers as Liverpool push for the title

Much has been made of Liverpool’s recent form and their push for the title, whilst plaudits have regularly been rained on Suarez, Sturridge and Sterling, it is another young player who deserves more credit than he is getting.

Jon Flannagan has made 14 appearances for Liverpool so far this season, an increasing number of which have been in recent weeks. He has played 7 times at left back and 7 times at right back, highlighting his versatility. More recently he’s been employed at left back, with Glen Johnson playing in his preferred right back position. Whilst Flannagan’s chances were initially born out of necessity, with injuries to Johnson, Enrique and Sakho providing the chance, he has seized the opportunity with both hands and does not look out of his depth at the highest level. Flannagan is giving Rogers a selection nightmare when Enrique does return from injury, on current form it’ll be hard to leave the youngster out.

The 21 year old is making 3.6 tackles per game and an average of 1.6 interceptions whenever he plays. An area on which he could look to build on is his discipline, conceding an average of 1.4 fouls per game, isn’t the worst but it could certainly be improved. With a higher number of tackles, you’d expect a greater number of fouls as a general rule.

Flannagan is dribbled past on average 1.8 times per game, that’s pretty good for a full back. For comparison Southampton’s Luke Shaw is dribbled past just 0.6 times per game, but also makes fewer tackles (1.9) so maybe Flannagan dives in too often, making him easier to get past. Also it’s likely that teams will target what they see as a weak spot, but against Manchester United neither Mata nor Januzaj could get anything out of the left back.

Another reason for Shaw’s superior statistics is likely to be his strength, making him harder to get past, Flannagan at times looks a bit weak, which is perhaps shown by the fact he has won just 1.2 aerial duels per game (compared to Shaw’s 1.9). Full backs generally win less headers since fewer long balls are played out wide.
                                                                                                                                                                    In Premier League games in which Flannagan has played Liverpool have lost just two (Arsenal and Hull), compared to three when he hasn’t been in the team. Whilst it’s fair to say that that record isn’t entirely down to Flannagan, and depends on the teams Liverpool have been playing, as well as other absentees and a handful of other factors, it’s interesting to note and not completely worth ignoring. The reason for the form is more likely to be that Flannagan’s inclusion has coincided with a settled back four and the defensive stability that adds is so crucial (and often overlooked).

Going forward Flannagan adds another dimension to the Liverpool attack, whilst he isn’t as adventurous as Glen Johnson, full backs pushing on has been a consistent feature of Liverpool’s style of play under Rogers. Flannagan has one goal to his name so far this season, which is in fact more than Glen Johnson, but has an average of just 0.4 shots per game and 0.1 crosses per game. Given that Liverpool aren’t the tallest team going forward, perhaps the small number of crosses shouldn’t surprise us, similarly there are many more accomplished finishers in the team so Flannagan can hardly be blamed for passing to others to let them have a shot.

Unsurprisingly for a player in a Brendan Rogers team, Flannagan has high pass accuracy (81.4%) and makes on average 37.6 passes per game. Rogers’ philosophy is based on building possession from the back and dominating games and these figures fit in well with that style of play. As does the fact that he only plays 1.7 long balls on average per game.

The fact that Liverpool have chosen not to make the loan move of Aly Cissokho permanent speaks volumes of Rogers' faith in Flannagan. Jon Flannagan is certainly a bright young prospect and Liverpool will be hoping he continues to develop at this current rate, if he does the Merseysider will be a favourite of the Kop for years to come. 

Statistics courtesey of whoscored.com


Wednesday 19 March 2014

AVB to ZSP: the size of the job facing Villas-Boas at Zenit

Former Porto, Chelsea and Spurs manager Andre Villas-Boas has been announced as the manager of Russian club Zenit St Petersburg on a two year contract. AVB, who has been out of work since his sacking from Spurs in late 2013, will take charge of the Russian club on 20th March, following their Champions League tie away at Dortmund.

Since the return from the lengthy winter break in Russia, Zenit are without a win. A draw at home to relegation threatened Tom Tomsk and 1-0 defeat at the hands of 5th place CSKA Moscow has seen Zenit relinquish first place to Lokomotiv. Lokomotiv are now 3 points clear of Zenit with the other 3 Moscow clubs right behind them, Spartak are on 40 points just 1 behind Zenit and Dinamo Moscow have 39 points. Zenit cannot afford anymore slip ups if they wish to be playing Champions League football next season, with only the top two clubs qualifying in the Russian Premier League.

With a 4-2 deficit to overturn it is likely that Villas-Boas will not have to worry about fixture congestion as a result of European competition, but given the lengthy winter break fixture congestion will be inevitable in the coming months. 

Given the importance of qualifying for the Champions League and winning the Premier League it is perhaps not surprising that Zenit chose to part company with former manager Spalleti, who had been in charge since 2009. It does seem like a snap decision given the relatively strong position Zenit are in and given that a period of adjustment would be expected following AVB’s arrival.

Zenit’s squad boasts the attacking talents of Hulk, who Villas-Boas worked with at Porto, Danny and Kerzhakov. As well as former Arsenal player Arshavin, highly rated Belgian Axel Witsel, and a handful of Russian internationals.

Hulk is without a doubt Zenit’s biggest star and it could be said there is a sense of pandering to him in appointing a coach he worked so well under at Porto. If Zenit don’t qualify for the Champions League, then there’ll be no shortage of suitors for the Brazilian, particularly if he has a good World Cup.

Hulk has 9 goals in 15 games, a total only surpassed by Portugese international Danny who has managed 10 in one game more. Danny also has more assists (7) than Hulk, he has the highest in the squad and second highest in the league. As Hulk is generally the focal point of the attack that could explain why he has less assists. Hulk has the most shots per game, with 4.2, not only in the Zenit team but in the league as well. That illustrates the point, Hulk can at some times be selfish, but his technical ability does merit it.

Their problem this season has not been offensively, scoring 40 goals in 21 games, the highest in the league by 1 goal, but defensively. Zenit have conceded 21 goals, an average of one per game, league leaders Lokomotiv have conceded 4 less. Zenit concede 13 shots per game, so it’s hardly surprising that they are conceding quite a lot of goals. This brings more clarity to the decision to point Villas-Boas, given his reputation for making his teams defensively solid and relying on moments of brilliance to win games.

However, defensively there is a lack of strength of depth in the Zenit squad. Only the experienced Belgian Nicolas Lombaerts has played more than 15 games (18) and no defender has been ever present so far. A consistent back four would be a considerable advantage in adding some much needed solidity and would go a long way to stopping some of Zenit’s frailties.

Andre Villas-Boas has a chance to rebuild his reputation in Russia away from the prying eyes of Europe’s elite. If he can stop the poor form that Zenit are currently experiencing and get them back to winning ways, a title could well follow. If not and the poor form continues AVB will be hard pressed to find such a good job again, hopefully though he can turn things around.

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com



  

Sunday 16 March 2014

Ings and Vokes firing Burnley towards the Premier League

The step up from the Championship to the Premier League is one that more than a few players have struggled with, the transition is particularly tough on strikers, and the quality of Premier League defences is a level above those in England’s second tier.

With Burnley sitting in second in the Championship, 10 points clear of second place Derby, they could be forgiven for starting to think about automatic promotion and adapting to Premier League life once more.

Central to that promotion charge have been the goals of Danny Ings, the 21 year old English striker. He is currently the second highest scorer in the division, with 20 goals, 2 more than strike partner Sam Vokes. The league’s deadliest strike force has 38 goals in 36 games between them.

Ings is also edging it in terms of assists too, with 5 to Vokes’ 4, despite his marginally superior statistics Ings has played two game less than Vokes who has featured in all of Burnley’s 36 league games so far this season. The fact that the two have played so much this season says a lot about their form but also Burnley’s reliance on them and with the news that Ings has picked up an injury against Birmingham on Tuesday, the goal scoring burden will now fall on Vokes.

Vokes, who’s aerial strength is something that teams have struggled to contain, winning an average of 7.2 headers per game. His strength in the air is part of the reason why his passing accuracy is so low (54.1%), as a general rule headers are harder to accurately place than passes. 

Vokes has experience in the Premier League with Wolves, however in those 3 seasons he made no starts and just 11 substitute appearances. Given that he played so infrequently it’s hardly surprising Vokes failed to score a Premier League goal. That said, the experience of being at a Premier League club, even if he isn’t playing is something that should stand him in good stead. That experience may be limited but it is more than Ings has.

Vokes averages 2.7 shots per game, less than Ings (3.3) that could be used to suggest that Vokes is more clinical than his strike partner, however, there’s very little in their statistics.

As an individual Ings is probably the better of the two players. He has scored more goals and more assists, but the true strength of their strike partnership is just that. Together they are better than either of them are individually, Vokes’ aerial and general strength are well complemented by Ings’ creativity. 

Ings is perhaps more flexible, he has also been employed as an attacking midfielder, in behind Vokes. In this situation Vokes is able to occupy the defenders creating space which INgs can occupy with devastating effect.


If Burnley are promoted Ings and Vokes will  be central to their success and vital if they are to survive, although they will certainly need to strength and some experience may well be required. If Burnley do not get promotion there’ll be no end of potential suitors for Ings and Vokes too. Either way, expect Danny Ings to be plying his trade in the Premier League next season. 

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Thursday 13 March 2014

QPR place faith in Morrison

QPR posted losses of £65 m since June 2013, it’s hardly surprising given the club’s relegation from the Premier League and the frankly shambolic transfer policy of spending big on distinctly average, or past their best players. That coupled with shaky form making an immediate return to England’s top tier all the less likely have led to some questioning whether or not Harry Redknapp will be at the helm next season.

Redknapp showed a brilliantly shrew move in the loan signing of Ravel Morrison from West Ham. Morrison, who was subject of a bid from Fulham, given several good performances when chances to start presented themselves due to injuries and suspensions at West Ham, is one of the brightest young talents in English football. That’s not the best part of the signing though, given that emergency loan signings only last for 93 days, Redknapp delayed Morrison’s signing, ensuring that the player would be available for the play-off final, should QPR reach it.

That says a lot about the faith that Redknapp has in Morrison, that he thinks he is good enough to play in such an important match, should it be required. But perhaps it says more about where QPR are at the moment.

Given their strength in depth QPR were hotly tipped to bounce back to the Premier League, however, since the turn of the year they’ve seen the hopes of automatic promotion fade quickly, in part due to an excellent run from Leicester, but not entirely without faults of their own.

Morrison has now made 4 appearances for the R’s and scored 2 goals, both of which came in Saturday’s win over Birmingham. His goals included a well-placed free kick from the edge of the area and a cool finish from just inside the area placed into the bottom corner, in his relatively short career Morrison has shown he has the ability to be a top class finisher, his goals against Spurs and in training for England showed just how good he is.

It’s hardly surprising that with 3.3 shots per game so far for QPR that Morrison has been in and around the goals, fans will be hoping he can convert a few more chances in the race for promotion.

He has an impressive pass accuracy of 91.5%, the highest in the squad, and has average 44 passes per game in his stint at QPR. Of those, 1.8 per game have been passes which have created chances. That’s an area where he needs to improve and at times be less selfish, which is further demonstrated by his lack of assists for his new club. 

Since he joined Morrison has played almost every minute for QPR, demonstrating just how vital Redknapp thinks he is to the team.

Morrison’s defensive contribution is particularly weak, with no interceptions, less than one (0.5) tackles per game and 1.3 fouls committed per game. More and more is becoming expected of forward thinking players defensively, so if Morrison wants to make it at the highest level it’s something he’ll have to look to add to his game. This is why he can’t be played in a deeper role, which will hamper his chances once he returns to West Ham, given that club captain Kevin Nolan occupies the role behind Andy Carroll, and their partnership is one that Allardyce will not want to disrupt.


There’s no doubt that Morrison has an immense amount of talent, but if he is to become one of the best in the world he needs to add a few things to his game (namely more defensive contribution), which may require an adjustment of his attitude. Hopefully, the extra responsibility and reliance Harry Redknapp and QPR are placing in the youngster will go some way to correcting this. This could well be the experience that determines the trajectory of Ravel Morrison’s career.

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com  

Monday 10 March 2014

De Bruyne out to prove Mourinho wrong

Chelsea’s sale of Belgian attacking midfielder Kevin DeBruyne seemed to be in part to recoup some of the £21m spent on Nemanja Matic, seven times the price the London club had sold him to Benfica for several years earlier. De Bruyne will be hoping to make Chelsea and particularly Mourinho, who questioned the midfielder’s attitude, realise they have made a similar mistake by selling him.

The signing of Matic has proved to be successful, the Serbian looks as if he’s never left Stamford Bridge and has added some much needed steel and reliability to the centre of the pitch. However, the sale of De Bruyne is slightly perplexing, given the bright future he appeared to have ahead of him and even more so when accompanied with the sale of Juan Mata.

Understandably, there were no shortage of suitors for De Bruyne given how well he performed on previous loan spells in Germany, and it was to Germany he returned, this time to Wolfsburg. Wolfsburg currently occupy a Europa League spot, which they will be hoping to hold on to until the end of the season.

De Bruyne’s task has been to replace Diego, the Brazilian returning to Atletico Madrid, where he had considerably more success than in Germany. In 15 games Diego managed just 3 goals and 2 assists, in less than half than that De Bruyne has provided 3 assists, although he is yet to register a goal for his new club.

Since arriving in Germany De Bruyne has played almost every minute for Wolfsburg, highlighting his importance to the team. A stark cry from the situation at Chelsea where more often than not he featured as a substitute, if at all.  In his time as a first team player at Chelsea, De Bruyne had just two league starts and made one substitute appearance, although he did manage to supply an assist in the process.

Now at Wolfsburg, with a considerably less talented squad than at Chelsea De Bruyne is beginning to show what his former club missed out on. His three assists have all come in his last 4 games and one of them was against Bayern, showing that the player clearly has talent. That does suggest there is some consistency lacking from his game; that is partly due to adjusting to a new team, surroundings and regaining match fitness. De Bruyne is showing that he is defensively capable too, with 1.6 tackles and 0.6 interceptions per game, hardly the best figures but not bad for an attack minded player.

However, it’s going forward where the Belgian is beginning to distinguish himself once more. On average De Bruyne has 2.1 shots per game, if he continues at that sort of rate he’s bound to score a goal or two sooner rather than later. He is also creating 2.1 chances for his teammates, the highest in the current Wolfsburg squad, although the departing Diego had an average of 2.2.

Another asset of De Bruyne, which Chelsea fans didn’t really get to see, is his dribbling ability. With an average of 4.6 completed dribbles per game a total again only surpassed by Diego (5). Whilst at times it can be frustrating for a player to constantly dribble and not pass to teammates, especially if they’re giving the ball away, but when a player has the ability to do so successfully it’s one of the best things in the game.

De Bruyne’s statistics are more akin to his previous spell in Germany with Werder Bremen, where, in 33 games, he managed 9 assists and 10 goals. Whilst the goals are missing, the number of assists per game is higher, that in part is due to the small number of games he has played for Wolfsburg. The number of chances created per game is lower (2.1 compared to 2.6 in his time at Werder Bremen) the fact that the number of assists is higher suggest De Bruyne is playing with better, more clinical players now.

 De Bruyne’s move was motivated on the player’s part by wanting first team football, especially in a World Cup year and with the fierce competition in the Belgium squad. De Bruyne has been a regular in that squad during qualifying and was the top scorer in a team that boasts the considerable attacking threats of Hazard, Lukaku and Benteke, to name but a few.


Withstanding an injury or sudden loss of form, (and even in the latter case) it’s unlikely De Bruyne will miss out on the World Cup, such was his importance to Belgium in qualifying, and it’ll give him a chance to prove Mourinho and all his other doubters wrong, on the biggest stage of all.

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com