How does Joe Hart's Passing Compare to Other Keepers?

Pep Guardiola’s first team selection caused more than a few raised eyebrows, with the former Barcelona and Bayern manager dropping Yaya Toure, playing Alexander Kolorov at centre back and opting for Willy Caballero over Joe Hart in goal. Guardiola’s main reason for leaving out Joe Hart was his passing ability, so how does Hart compare to other keepers?

First let’s compare Joe Hart’s passing statistics with those of Guardiola’s previous keepers Victor Valdes and Manuel Neuer. Figure 1 shows the average pass completion for each keeper over the past seven seasons. From this we can see Hart has had the lowest passing success of any of the three keepers. The  impact of Guardiola's playing style can be seen in the graph from the passing successes of Valdes and Neuer. Valdes' passing success dropped  from around 80% from 2009-12 (under Guardiola), to just above 60% for the following two seasons (post Guardiola). Neuer's passing success jumped from 70 and 75% prior to Guardiola manging Bayern to 88, 86 and 80% under Guardiola's management. So there's an argument that we would expect Hart's passing success to improve to from its baseline of around 50% under the Spainiard. 

Figure 1

Perhaps the reason for this can be explained by team's playing a greater proportion of shorter passes, which are more likely to reach there target, under Guardiola.  We see thaat Neuer played an average of over 20 short passes per game each season under Guardiola compared to 9.2 and 13 per games in the two previous seasons at Bayern (see Figure 2). 

Figure 2

In terms of long balls there is no real pattern in terms of the number of accurate and inaccurate long balls under Guardiola.  It is interesting that Hart has played a higher number of inaccurate long balls than the other two keepers but this could be a result of the characterisitcs of the different leagues. 

So how does Hart compare to the other Premier League keepers? Last season Hart's passing success was above the average (50.04%) but was the 9th highest in the league (for keepers who had played ten or more games), see Figure 3. 

Figure 3

Also compared to other Premier League keepers Hart played one of the lowest numbers of long balls (both accurate and inaccurate), Figure 4. In fact Hart played the lowest number of average passes per game (21.3) in the league last season. This may have been a tactical ploy on City's behalf, perhaps they knew Hart's ability on the ball was lacking or may be they had more control of games so needed to utilise Hart less. 

Figure 4

From the above analysis it is clear that Hart's passing game could do with some work compared to both Guardiola's previous keepers and also other keepers in the Premier League. Encouraging shorter passing and getting Hart on the ball more would likely see his passing average improve. It's likely City will build from the back, especially with John Stones' ability on the ball so don't be too surprised if we see this happen. 

Of course it's also possible that Guardiola simply dropped Hart to try and get the best out of him after a disappointing Euro 2016, Sunderland at home was never likely to be the most testing game for Caballero and on top of that Caballero looked far from convincing with his kicking - I would not be at all surprised if we see Hart back in goal much sooner than some expect. 

Data courtesy of whoscored.com 

The Premier League's Best Centre Back?

Last season Southampton had the second best defensive record, conceding just 33 goals in 38 games. This season Ronald Koeman’s side have been less assured at the back (although that may have been in some part due to Fraser Forster’s absence; since his return Southampton have kept three clean sheets) and have shipped 24 goals in 23 games. In the summer Southampton tried to secure the permanent signing of Toby Alderweireld from Atletico Madrid, the Belgian defender had impressed during his loan spell and had been a large part of their good defensive record.

However, Alderweireld instead joined Tottenham on a permanent basis and since then has not missed a minute of football in the Premier League for Mauricio Pochettino’s side. Alderweireld has formed a strong partnership with his countryman Jan Vertonghen, who has also featured in every Premier League game for Spurs this season.

It’s been easy to overlook the steady progress of Tottenham this season with Chelsea and Manchester United self-destructing to varying degrees and Watford and Leicester continuing to win the plucky underdog plaudits. Even when Spurs have been gaining exposure it’s been almost exclusively for their attacking play, with Harry Kane and Delle Alli getting most of the headlines.

However, as good as their attacking play has been Tottenham also deserve credit for their defensive work. They have conceded just 19 goals this season, the best record in the league and have lost only three games (only Leicester can better that record).  

It’s worth noting that bar the inclusion of Alderweireld the Tottenham defence has been largely unchanged from last season, Pochettino’s first choice back four this season has been Walker – Vertonghen – Alderweireld –Rose, in the 2014/15 campaign it was Walker – Vertonghen – Fazio – Rose. Last season Tottenham conceded 53 goals, barring a defensive capitulation they will better that total by some distance this time around and whilst some of the difference could be ascribed to the defensive stability that Eric Dier and Mousa Dembele have offered in front of the back four I think a lot of it is down to Alderweireld.

He is accomplished on the ball, capable of playing accurate long balls out of defence, which have allowed Spurs to launch quick, incisive counter attacks. In fact Alderweireld has 2 assists to his name so far this season, more than any other centre back (and the same amount as Eden Hazard). As well as the cultured side to his game, Alderweireld is still very strong physically and powerful in the air, as you would expect from a centre back.  

Alderweireld averages 1.7 tackles and 2.3 interceptions per game, the latter figure is indicative of a player who is capable of reading the game well, putting himself in a position where he doesn’t necessarily need to make a tackle. Alderweireld is also a very clean tackler, he has picked up just one yellow card so far this season and of centre backs to have played more than five games only John Terry, Ramiro Funes Mori and Phil Jagielka have commited less fouls per game (Terry and Funes Mori 0.2 fouls per game, Jagielka and Alderweireld 0.3 fouls per game).      

With the also impressive Jan Vertonghen set to miss a chunk of the remainder of the campaign after damaging his medial ligament in the victory over Palace Tottenham fans should rest assured that their defensive is in good hands with Alderweireld at its heart. 

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Stoke Continuing to Evolve under Hughes

Stoke’s signing of Ibrahim Afellay was their eighth of the summer and Afellay is now the fourth player to swap the Nou Camp for the Potteries. It is testament to how far Stoke have come in recent years, a few years ago Stoke and Barcelona represented to polar opposites in football aesthetics but under Mark Hughes the two are less removed from one another.

Under Tony Pulis Stoke where optimised by Rory Delap’s long throws, they were a physical side, difficult to break down, strong from set pieces and favoured long balls. That is a reputation that has been difficult for Stoke to shake and whilst elements of the identity under their former manager still exist Mark Hughes has added other dimensions to their play.

That is most clearly observed from looking at how Stoke’s possession has changed over the last six seasons. We can see that in the last two seasons Stoke’s share of the ball has increased and in fact last season they actually averaged more possession than their opponents (with 50.4% of the ball per game). What is interesting is that this increase had begun under Pulis’ reign and has continued to rise at roughly the same rate. It could be argued that it is harder to continue to increase the share of possession, ie it is harder to go from having 30% to 35% than 40% to 45%.

Stoke have continued  to be a physical side under Hughes, shown by the fact that they continue to win over 50% of their aerial duels, a trait they established under Pulis. The values are around a similar level to the last two seasons Pulis was in charge for, with averages of 59 and 58.5% under Pulis and Hughes respectively.

Interestingly though Stoke have scored fewer goals from set pieces and have become much less reliant on them under Mark Hughes. Stoke have also scored more goals in each of Mark Hughes’ seasons at the helm, despite getting fewer from set pieces. This indicates Stoke’s shift towards becoming a side that plays on the front foot and offers more attacking intent.

Stoke continue to be strong at home, in each of their seasons in the Premier League the majority of their points have come from their games at home. Last season despite winning fewer points at home Stoke managed to win more away, and so still improved on their total in Mark Hughes’ debut season. Given that Stoke have been consistently winning the majority of their points from home games if they are to improve their points tally and league position they need to try to get more from away games and there’s signs from last season that they’re trying to do that.

Whilst Stoke fans will be forever grateful to Tony Pulis for leading them to promotion and securing their status as a Premier League team in order for them to move forward a change was necessary and Mark Hughes has provided that. The future at Stoke looks bright, whilst we shouldn’t expect to see Leo Messi gracing the Britannia with his presence any time soon don’t be surprised if Stoke challenge strongly in both cups this year and push for a Europa League place.

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

What should Liverpool expect from Milner?

Liverpool’s acquisition of James Milner on a free transfer is one that looks like a very good deal. Milner has vast experience, internationally, in the Premier League and also in Europe. His work rate is exemplary and throughout his career has shown he can play in almost any position.

For Milner the move makes sense, he wants to get more game time and specifically more time in the centre of the park. Milner is, at this time anyway, a shoe-in for the England squad for the Euros and he will be hoping he can show he deserves to be in the starting line-up.

It’s strange that City couldn’t make promises to give Milner more time, Fabian Delph has been signed as his replacement but whether he is an improvement is another question. Milner had his best goal scoring season since 2010/11 when he was at Aston Villa, as he scored five goals. He also provided seven assists, again his highest total since his move to City.  

Milner scored more goals than Nasri and Dzeko in the last season and provided as many assists as David Silva. Liverpool will be hoping he can replicate that kind of form at Anfield.  In fact Milner provided more assists than Lallana and Coutinho last season and with a consistent run in the side you’d expect Milner to surpass that total.

In many ways you know what you’ll get from James Milner, he’ll always put in the effort and he’s very consistent. He doesn’t catch the eye in the way that someone like Coutinho or Silva does but based on last season there’s evidence that Milner can provide Liverpool with much more that hard graft. Milner is someone who’s technical abilities are still underrated, I think there’s a tendency to overlook those qualities in his game.

A midfield of Jordan Henderson and James Milner will have plenty of energy and commitment but will be one that can also be a creative force and provide both chances and goals.   

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Can PSV regain their league title?

PSV won the Dutch league by seventeen points last season meaning they will feature in the Champions League this season. On their way to winning the league they managed 92 goals, 23 more than Ajax, the next highest scorers and conceded just 31, two more than Ajax. PSV’s attacking style won them countless admirers and was a large part in their success last season. However, winning the league in such style will draw the eyes of the top clubs in Europe and this transfer window has seen Memphis Depay and Georginio Wijnaldum depart for the Premier League.

Depay scored 22 of PSV’s goals last season, at just 21 years old the attacking midfielder is considered one of the young players in Europe and Manchester United fans will certainly be hoping that is the case. Depay is lightning quick, a strong dribbler and has a very good long shot on him, comparisons with Cristiano Ronaldo will no doubt be made and if Depay goes on to be half the player Ronaldo is United will be very pleased.  

Wijnaldum was PSV’s captain last term and the loss of their leader could hit them hard, the 24 year old managed 14 goals last season and featured in 33 of the 34 games in the last Eredivisie campaign. Newcastle fans will no doubt be excited by the signing of a top player and one they can look to provide some much needed creativity from.

Those two departures mean PSV have lost two of their starting eleven and thirty four league goals as well. Despite recouping around £45 m from the two transfers PSV haven’t made any moves for replacements, if they are to hold on to their league title that is something they will need to do. One thing PSV can be glad of is that Luuk de Jong looks as though he will remain with them for next season.

De Jong, who had an ill fated loan spell at Newcastle eighteen months ago, looked much more at home in his native country, scoring 20 goals in the last campaign. Without further additions the onus for goal scoring will fall very much on his shoulders and should he pick up an injury PSV could really struggle.

Ajax will certainly be keeping an eye on the goings on at PSV and will be feeling a lot more optimistic about their chances of winning another league title with Depay and Wijnaldum both departing.  The Eredivisie will be lacking a bit of star quality without two of its leading lights but the league should be more competitive without them.    

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com  

Who is the better signing Cabaye or Wijnaldum?

Newcastle and Crystal Palace completed signings last week meaning that every club in the Premier League has now added to their squads. Newcastle and Palace will likely find themselves subject to comparisons throughout this coming season given that Alan Pardew left the former for the latter last season. Another reason is that Palace have now added former Newcastle fan favourite Yohan Cabaye from PSG for a fee of around £10m. I’m sure many Newcastle fans would have liked to see Cabaye rejoin them instead of their former manager, however the signing of Georginio Wijnaldum for £14.5m on Saturday is an excellent alternative, but who has got the better deal?

Cabaye is a real signal of intent for Palace and it’s surprising a bigger club didn’t move for him. It’s fair to say things didn’t work out for Cabaye in Paris, the 29 year old played just 967 minutes last season, scoring once and providing one assist. Cabaye’s move is likely fuelled by getting more game time ahead of the Euro’s next summer.

Wijnaldum on the other hand had no such problem, he captained title winning PSV last season and playing 2878 minutes, almost three times more than Cabaye. He provided 3 assists and scored 14 goals, all of which came from within the penalty area.

At 24, Wijnaldum is five years younger than Cabaye, so Newcastle will feel they have secured a player they can build a team around and one with his best years ahead of him. Palace fans will argue in favour of Cabaye’s experience and he is arguably at his peak. Experience, especially in the Premier League, is one thing that should count in favour of Cabaye, we have seen countless players take time to adjust to the Premier League but this should be no problem for Cabaye.

Both players can feature throughout midfield but are probably best deployed in the number ten role. In his time at Newcastle Cabaye proved adept at breaking up attacks, averaging 2.4 tackles and 2.4 interceptions per game the season before he moved to France. Whether this is something Wijnaldum will be able to replicate remains to be seen, in the World Cup we he was deployed in a deeper midfield role, so it is possible he could.

Athletically Wijnaldum has the advantage, he is a strong runner on the ball and a very good dribbler. Technically Cabaye probably just has the edge, his set piece delivery and general creativity have been sorely missed at Newcastle. Cabaye has an excellent passing range and is likely to be involved in building attacks and creating chances rather than finishing them off. Of his 17 goals at Newcastle 10 were from outside the box, that’s a stark contrast to all of Wijnaldum’s goals coming from inside the box.

For my money Cabaye’s capture is the better one, mainly because he has proven he can do it in the Premier League, and is one of the best signings of the transfer window so far. That’s not to say Wijnaldum is a poor acquisition, but a lot will depend on how he settles in England and whether or not Newcastle can add another striker and keep hold of their best players. Despite many similarities these are quite different players, both managers and sets of fans will be hoping they can add a creative force to take their side to the next level and there is certainly cause for hope in both cases.

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Five players who will be like new signings

When your club hasn’t been particularly active in the transfer window in order to drum up a bit of optimism it isn’t unusual to hear your manager talking about players being “like new signings”. This is reserved for players who have faced a long spell on the sidelines or some time away on loan. It might be a bit early in the day for managers to start trotting this line out yet but I’m expecting to hear quite a bit of it come the opening week of the season.

This is a list of five players that you can expect to be referred to as like new signings and their managers will be hoping that they are.

Jay Rodriguez

I think every football fan really felt for Jay Rodgriguez when he was stretchered off with a knee injury prior to the World Cup, the Southampton man was considered a shoe in by many for Roy Hodgson’s squad but it was not meant to be. After over a year on the sidelines we should be seeing a lot more of Rodgriguez this season.

Prior to that injury Rodriguez had fifteen goals in thirty starts in the 2013/14 season. Whilst he will by no means be a shoe in for a starting place given how far Southampton have come in the past 12 months, Rodriguez will provide another attacking option and if he finds his goal scoring form once more he will be very hard to leave out.

Siem de Jong

Siem de Jong was meant to be Newcastle’s marquee signing last season, however he only managed a handful of appearances, although he did grab a goal in those 147 minutes. De Jong was ravaged by injury but Steve McClaren will be hoping the former Ajax captain spends more time on the pitch than treatment table this time around. In his last season in the Netherlands de Jong scored seven goals in sixteen appearances, not a 

bad return but one Newcastle fans will be hoping he can surpass this season.

Daniel Sturridge

Sturridge and Suarez came so close to helping Liverpool to the title the season before last and their struggles last year are reflected in the lack of game time Sturridge managed, the England striker played just 750 minutes for Liverpool last campaign.

You feel if they are to mount any real title challenge this season Sturridge must remain fit and score at least the 21 goals he managed when partnered with Luiz Suarez. There’s no doubting Sturridge is a real talent, with the likes of Roberto Firmino and Phillipe Coutinho creating the chances you’d like to think a fit Sturridge would be near the top of the scoring charts come the end of the season.

Bojan

If ever there was a player to signify the transition of Stoke’s footballing identity it would be Bojan. The young Spaniard, tipped earlier in his career to be the next Messi, traded the Nou Camp for the Brittannia last summer in a move that raised more than a few eyebrows.

Before suffering an ACL injury in an FA cup tie against Rochdale Bojan managed four goals and an assist in 14 Premier League games. He certainly added another dimension to Stoke’s attacks and there were glimpses of the talent that saw him posited as Mesi’s heir, Mark Hughes will be keen to have him fighting fit as soon as possible. Stoke have strengthened well this season as they look to build on a top half finish, if they are to push for European qualification you can’t help but feel Bojan will be central to that.

Mathieu Debuchy

Signed from Newcastle last summer Mathieu Debuchy was regarded as a solid replacement for the departing Bacary Sagna. Things didn’t work out as planned, with Debuchy featuring just ten times in the Premier League thanks to a series of injuries. Debuchy will be keen to regain a place in the Gunners side and will be hoping to be part of the French set up comenext summer’s Euros.

Hector Bellerin and Callum Chambers provided ample cover for Debuchy but Wenger will be pleased to have someone more experienced to call on in big games. He was regularly one of Newcaslte’s best players in his time on Tyneside and Arsenal fans will be hoping he can recapture that form and remain injury free for the upcoming season. 

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com