Stoke Continuing to Evolve under Hughes

Stoke’s signing of Ibrahim Afellay was their eighth of the summer and Afellay is now the fourth player to swap the Nou Camp for the Potteries. It is testament to how far Stoke have come in recent years, a few years ago Stoke and Barcelona represented to polar opposites in football aesthetics but under Mark Hughes the two are less removed from one another.

Under Tony Pulis Stoke where optimised by Rory Delap’s long throws, they were a physical side, difficult to break down, strong from set pieces and favoured long balls. That is a reputation that has been difficult for Stoke to shake and whilst elements of the identity under their former manager still exist Mark Hughes has added other dimensions to their play.

That is most clearly observed from looking at how Stoke’s possession has changed over the last six seasons. We can see that in the last two seasons Stoke’s share of the ball has increased and in fact last season they actually averaged more possession than their opponents (with 50.4% of the ball per game). What is interesting is that this increase had begun under Pulis’ reign and has continued to rise at roughly the same rate. It could be argued that it is harder to continue to increase the share of possession, ie it is harder to go from having 30% to 35% than 40% to 45%.

Stoke have continued  to be a physical side under Hughes, shown by the fact that they continue to win over 50% of their aerial duels, a trait they established under Pulis. The values are around a similar level to the last two seasons Pulis was in charge for, with averages of 59 and 58.5% under Pulis and Hughes respectively.

Interestingly though Stoke have scored fewer goals from set pieces and have become much less reliant on them under Mark Hughes. Stoke have also scored more goals in each of Mark Hughes’ seasons at the helm, despite getting fewer from set pieces. This indicates Stoke’s shift towards becoming a side that plays on the front foot and offers more attacking intent.

Stoke continue to be strong at home, in each of their seasons in the Premier League the majority of their points have come from their games at home. Last season despite winning fewer points at home Stoke managed to win more away, and so still improved on their total in Mark Hughes’ debut season. Given that Stoke have been consistently winning the majority of their points from home games if they are to improve their points tally and league position they need to try to get more from away games and there’s signs from last season that they’re trying to do that.

Whilst Stoke fans will be forever grateful to Tony Pulis for leading them to promotion and securing their status as a Premier League team in order for them to move forward a change was necessary and Mark Hughes has provided that. The future at Stoke looks bright, whilst we shouldn’t expect to see Leo Messi gracing the Britannia with his presence any time soon don’t be surprised if Stoke challenge strongly in both cups this year and push for a Europa League place.

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Southampton's Keeping Troubles

There can be no doubts that Southampton competed far above everyone’s expectations last season, they were tipped for relegation but were unlucky to miss out on a Europa League spot by the end of the season. That failure (although it seems harsh to label it as that) to reach European football is reflected in the way Saints ended the season, losing four of their last six games and other than Manchester City and Spurs those games, on paper anyway, certainly looked winnable.

One possible cause for this downturn in form is the absence of Fraser Forster from the side for the last eight games of the season, through injury. In those eight games, Southampton conceded twelve game, an average of 2.5 per game. In the 30 games in which Fraser Forster competed Southampton conceded 21 goals, an average of 0.7 goals per game, that difference is fairly astounding.

Forster was replaced by Kelvin Davis and Paulo Gazziniga for the eight games he missed. Neither goalkeeper covered themselves in glory during that period of time, according to whoscored.com, Davis caused an error that led to a goal against Stoke and in my opinion could have done better with Chadli’s header against Spurs, whilst Gazziniga was at fault for one of the goals against Leicester.

If those errors hadn’t occurred, but everything else had remained the same, Southampton would have beaten Spurs and drawn with Stoke. That would have given them an extra three points and would mean they’d have qualified for European football.

It’s worth noting that for these eight games Southampton had a pretty settled back four and it wasn’t particularly different from the rest of the season, mainly consisting of Clyne at right back, two from Yoshida, Fonte and Alderweireld at centre back and Bertrand at left back. So changes in defence aren’t 

to blame for the extra goals shipped.

Nor is the opposition, over those eight games Southampton faced Everton (A),Hull (H), Stoke (A), Spurs (H), Sunderland (A), Leicester (A), Villa (H) and City (A). Admittedly there’s a lot of away games in there  but in the reverse fixtures they conceded just five goals and three of those were against City.

It’s impossible to say whether Southampton would have done better with Forster in their side but it would make sense, knowing you have a solid goalkeeper can inspire the rest of the side to play with confidence and it can demoralise opposition when he makes a string of top saves. Add to that the fact defenders will build up a relationship and understanding with their goalkeeper which is important for keeping a clean sheet.

This is not to disparage the two deputies, Davis has been a loyal servant to Southampton and was club captain last season and Gazziniga is just 23, Forster is an excellent goalkeeper and it's understandable for any replacement to be at a lower level. That said, if I was Ronald Koeman I’d certainly be considering bringing in another keeper for back up this season.

Southampton ended up with the second meanest defence in the league, only Chelsea conceded fewer goals than them (32 compared to 33), I think it’s fair to say with Forster in goal Saints might have ended with up the best defence in the league and maybe even European football.

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Swansea Continuing Top Transfer Dealings

Much has been made of how successful Swansea where last season, but one aspect of that success which seems to have been overlooked is their transfer dealings. Many people expected Swansea to flounder once they sold Wilfried Bony to Manchester City but they completed the rest of the season admirably and their forays into the transfer market this summer look promising.

Given that Swansea have such a strong style of play it is perhaps easier to identify, or at least exclude certain transfer targets. The capture of Jack Cork in Januray looks a great bit of business, Gylfi Sigurdsson showed what he can achieve when deployed in his best position and Fabianski was also a top signing last summer.

Another of last summer’s recruits, Bafetimbi Gomis, was the most natural replacement for Bony in the Swansea squad last January, from that point to the end of the season he managed six of his seven league goals and five of those came in a spell of five games towards the end of the campaign. It’s fair to say he didn’t quite reach the same levels as Bony, but will be looking to continue in same manner he ended last term.

Other than Gomis and the on loan Nelson Oliveria, Swansea didn’t really have any striking options so it’s understandable that that’s an area they’ve looked to strengthen. They’ve brought in Eder from Braga for around £5m, the Portugal international hit ten goals last season in his home country. At over 6ft Eder will be seen as a similar type of player to both Bony and Gomis, giving Swansea a focal point for their attacks.

In addition to Eder, Swansea have also added the highly coveted Andre Ayew. Ayew joined on a free transfer from Marseille and is predominantly a left sided attacking midfielder. That said he also played centrally for Marseille and even featured at left back once last season so is certainly very versatile. He too managed ten goals last time out and also registered three assists. Ayew’s signing will have been as something of a coup for a player who was linked with Liverpool and other clubs this summer.

Whilst it remains to be seen whether the new signings Garry Monk has made will have the desired impact there’s certainly cause to be optimistic. One really impressive part of the deal is the way Swansea managed to get them done early and for minimal transfer fees, securing two experienced internationals for £5m is a great bit of business in anyone’s book. Based on last seasons signings you wouldn’t bet against them slotting right in.