Blind leading the blind

With all the talent to come through the door at Old Trafford this season the least exciting was probably Daley Blind. This is not a criticism, I’m a huge fan of the Dutchman but he’s not going to light up Old Trafford in the same way that Di Maria or Falcao might, his job however, is probably the most important in this United team.

Against Everton Van Gaal lined up with a midfield of Di Maria, Blind and Valencia, with Mata deployed further forward. That’s leaving a lot of work for Daley Blind, whilst Di Maria and Valencia are industrious and will certainly put in a shift, they are at heart attack minded wide players. Blind is essentially tasked with the job that most teams entrust at least two if not three men to do.

In his 4 Premier League appearances Blind has made an average of 3 tackles and 2.8 interceptions per game. Only Phil Jones and Rafael have made more interceptions and only Jones and Herrera have made more tackles. His importance to the midfield is apparent from that alone. When you add in an average of 3.8 clearances per game, his defensive contributions are added to.

In comparison Di Maria offers little defensively, he’s made just 4 tackles and 7 interceptions in his 5 games at Old Trafford, Valencia fares a little better, with an average of 2.8 tackles and 2.2 interceptions. This shows how much work Blind has to get through, if United wish to control games in the manner they’ve become accustomed to and to stop leaking so many goals they will need more cover in midfield.

There’s no doubt that Blind’s versatility is in part why he was signed, he’s at comfortable at centre back as he is at left back or in the role he currently occupies. Given his versatility it’s not surprising he’s such a well-rounded player.

His work is as much off the ball as it is on the ball, breaking up play is as important as starting attacks. His average pass accuracy is 88.9% and Blind plays an average of 67.8 passes, the 10^th highest of all players in the league. His passing range is varied, he has played 3.3 long balls per game so far, so he can release United on the counter or switch the play if needed. Unsurprisingly, Blind hasn’t created many chances for his team mates, his role is that of the middle man, by occupying space he can receive the ball and feed those who supply the goals.

Presumably Herrera will replace Valencia when fit and that will add some more solidity to the centre of the park. It’s clearly a problem of having such a plethora of attacking talent that fitting all those players in isn’t going to be easy and the solution seems to be removing a man from midfield. At the minute United aren’t a balanced side, there’s too much emphasis on attack and that isn’t sustainable, they’d benefit more from dropping one of the strikers for more midfield cover.

 Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

HIghlighting Manchester City's struggles in Europe

Tuesday’s draw with Roma was the fourth successive time that Manchester City have failed to win their opening home game in the Champions League, that’s surprising given how the Ethiad is a domestic fortress on which  City have built league success. It’s a result which points towards the larger trend of City failing to live up to their domestic prowess in Europe’s elite competition.

Last season was the first time that they managed to make it out of the group stage, it must be said that they have faced tough draws in each of their four seasons in the Champions League, they’ve been pitted against Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund to name but a few.

There has been talk since City reached the Champions League of a lack of experience in the competition letting the side down, and while that may be true of the team it is not true of the players that make it up. Yaya Toure has won the Champions League with Barcelona, Demichelis was part of the Malaga side that progressed so far under Pellegrini a few seasons ago and many of these City players are now entering their fourth year in the competition. These are world class players who have won countless domestic and international trophies, there should be no doubting their ability to produce on the biggest stage and yet doubts remain.

A quick look at the statistics is enough to highlight the disparity between City in the Champions League and Premier League, in all but their first season in the competition they boasted considerably higher possession and pass accuracy in the Premier League than in Europe. Perhaps not surprising given the calibre of opponents is higher in the Champions League and City’s game is not overly based on possession, like Barcelona’s is. Also the fact that this is a sample of 6 games in the Champions League and if two of those are against a Guardiola side it’s understandable that City would have less possession. What it does point to though is that City have to make a shift from being the side that dominates the game to one that is on the back foot when in Europe. Maybe they’re not used to being the underdogs and that change of expectations could cause problems but this also highlights the need to paly differently in Europe to in the Premier League, maybe throw in another midfielder and sacrifice a striker.

Defensively the statistics also point out to less impressive performances in the Champions League. Manchester City have conceded more shots in the Champions League than Premier League in each of their four seasons in the competition. On average there’s also a trend for less tackles in the Champions League, a bit surprising given that they’ve had less of the ball on the whole, suggesting they’re not doing enough without the ball. Although in the past few seasons they have made more interceptions in the Champions League, that hasn’t been the case so far this season, again this supports the call for a 5 man midfield I think.

Going forward there’s cause for concern too, City are having fewer shots in Europe than in the Premier League and also fewer shots on target. That’s disappointing given the amount of attacking talent they’ve amassed. Again, this could be a result of simply playing better opponents more frequently but if City want to be the best in Europe they need to beat the best and should be aiming to play with the attacking swagger we’ve become accustomed to in the Premier League. City are also completing fewer dribbles in the Champions League, they’re being afforded less time and space than they might be used to. Also City are caught offside considerably more when playing in the Champions League than when playing domestically, that ties in with them having less possession and at times playing on the counter, they’ll be looking for long balls in behind more frequently and that would lead to more offsides. More offsides means more attacks will be broken down and is a component in City having fewer shots.

Overall it seems that the grumblings about City’s performances in Europe are justified, whether or not it’s down to them being bad or their opponents being better is tough to say, I feel it’s a combination of the two. Watching City in Europe they look lethargic at times and don’t always look up to the game, almost in awe of their opponents. Whether or not there’s a quick fix is hard to say but it’s looking like it’ll be another tough European campaign ahead of them.

 Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Newcastle shooting themselves in the foot

I was looking through some of the Premier League statistics (as you do) and something caught my eye, the team with the joint highest number of shots per game is Newcastle, only Chelsea and Liverpool have managed more. So why do Alan Pardew’s side find themselves lingering at the foot of the table?

First of all, on average, only 3.3 of those shots have been on target. That’s the fourth worst total in the league, so in fact only 21% of Newcastle’s shots are on target. So more interesting than shots or shots on target is this conversion figure, the number of shots a side is getting on target. When you look at that figure it makes a lot more sense as to why Newcastle sit second bottom and have scored just 5 goals this season.

Ronald Koeman’s Southampton have an impressive conversion rate of 45.5%, the highest in the league, closely followed by Swansea’s of around 41%. Not that surprising given the stellar starts to the season these two sides have made. The side with the lowest conversion is Aston Villa, just 20% of their shots are on target, despite their bright start to the season Villa have scored just 4 goals, their success has been based more on a solid defence, so this shouldn’t be too surprising either.

A further look at Newcastle’s shooting reveals something else interesting and another reason for their lack of goals. Just under half (43%) of their shots have come from outside the area, with 11% of shots coming from within the 6 yard box. It suggests Newcastle are panicking when they get near the box and shooting instead of trying to build up play patiently and work a better opening. This theory is backed up by the fact that just 29% of touches by Newcastle players are in the final third.

Admittedly, this would be okay if Newcastle were playing fast, incisive counter attacking football but this isn’t the case, the build up is laboured but also lacks the patience to work the ball into good positions. They might have themselves caught in a bit of a vicious circle here, especially at home, the fans are rightly upset at the level of performance this season and a backwards pass is more likely to be met with groans than at times when results are going well.

If you compare similar statistics to Southampton the differences are clear. Under Koeman Saints have had 35% of their shots from outside of the box, more shots from inside the box has given them more shots on target and that has led to a greater number of goals. Interestingly, Southampton have the same percentage (29) of touches in the final third. It’s clear that they’re making those touches count more than Newcastle.

Another statistic which highlights Newcastle’s lack of forward creativity is their lack of offsides so far this season, they’ve had just 1 in 6 games. To offer a comparison, Southampton have had 2.3 offsides per game, the second highest in the division. Obviously, you don’t want your players to be offside constantly but a higher number of offsides would suggest players making runs in behind. That rings true with Newcastle, from watching them this season they’ve looked very static going forward, lacking movement or runners from deep, and have also seen their main striker isolated a lot of the time.

Whether or not Pardew can doing anything about this remains to be seen, maybe he should encourage his players to work the ball in to the box and be more patient. To be honest this only half the problem, Newcastle’s defensive concerns are probably more cause for concern.

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com