Analysing Dortmund's woes

When the Bundesliga returns on the 30th of January, Borussia Dortmund will find themselves 30 points adrift of league leaders Bayern Munich and perhaps more importantly 12 points off the Champions League places.  As things stand Jurgen Klopp and co may be more focused on survival than fighting for titles, his side are second bottom at the half way stage in the German league fixtures.

Dortmund have won just four times all season, drawn on three occasions and lost ten times. In the process they’ve scored a lowly 18 goals (4^th lowest in the division) and conceded 26. They’ve already lost three more games than in the entirety of their last campaign.

Qualifying for the Champions League is surely a must, not just for the revenue that it brings but also in order to hold on to the likes of Mats Hummels and Marco Reus who are seemingly linked with a move to pastures new on a daily basis. The Champions League has offered some reprieve for Dortmund, they finished ahead of Arsenal in their group although they now face a tricky tie against Juventus. Perhaps their best chance of qualifying for next year’s competition is to win this year’s.

Injuries have hit Dortmund hard.  Pierre Emerick Aubemayang is the only Dortmund player to feature in all 17 league games this season and no player has been ever present. That is certainly a problem, I mentioned earlier that the likes of Hummels and Reus may well leave next season, as it is they’ve played just 1360 minutes between them all season. It’s hardly surprising that Reus has just 3 goals and 2 assists. Experienced winger Jakub Blaszczykowski has featured for just 69 minutes all season.

In recent years losing their best players is something which Dortmund fans have had to become accustomed to. Losing 20 goal a season Robert Lewandowksi to Bayern in the summer was a massive blow, worsened by the fact that they received no fee for the Poland centre forward. However, they secured replacements in the form of Adrian Ramos and Ciro Immobile. Ramos had performed well in recent season for Hertha Berlin whilst Immobile was the top scorer in Serie A last season. Neither player has truly hit the ground running though.

Ramos has started six games and appeared as a substitute in seven. The Colombian has scored twice and created two goals. He is averaging just 1.4 shots per game, last season he was having over two times as many (2.9) and managed 16 goals. Immobile has just three goals to his name. He managed 22 last season, he is clearly taking time to adjust to the German league.

I don’t think Dortmund’s performance levels, or lack thereof, are solely down to Lewandowski leaving. Although it will have played a part and his goals are missed, that does not account for the lack of defensive stability shown by Dortmund. Perhaps the biggest way the move has affected Klopp and his players is psychologically, his desire to leave and to such a big rival is bound to knock confidence and leave players questioning the clubs ambition and their own futures.

Dortmund are still having a high number of shots, 17 compared to 18 the season past, but only 5 on target compared to 7. They’re having marginally more shots  from outside the box which could be a cause of this.

Dortmund have had higher possession this season, 57% compared to 52% last season. Their game has so often been based on counter attacks and swift attacks, a higher amount of possession suggests they lack that incisiveness and perhaps that is causing their game to suffer. This season Dortmund already have two red cards, they got none last season, there’s a lack of discipline creeping into their game, perhaps born out of frustration but it still leads to players missing games and makes winning that much harder.

At one stage Borussia Dortmund lost seven straight league games, they have recovered from that somewhat and they are surely too good to go down. They have however, left themselves a lot to do in terms of European qualification and finishing the season in a respectable position.   If they can get their full strength team fit and settled I wouldn’t bet against Dortmund climbing the table quickly.

 Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Assessing Everton's season so far

Everton’s third round FA cup tie at home to West Ham on Tuesday will be their 28^th in all competitions so far this season. They go into that game on the back of a four game losing streak in the Premier League which has led to growing pressure on Roberto Martinez. Everton have suffered as many defeats this season as in the whole of the last campaign.

As it stands Everton are 13^th and just 4 points above the relegation zone and 13 points adrift of fifth place and a successive European qualification. Their record is less than stellar, five games won, six drawn and nine lost. Only QPR have conceded more goals than Everton. Their problems have been at that end of the pitch, the Toffee’s are the league’s 6^th highest scorers. It’s worth noting they have been unable to field a regular settled back four this season, Distin has played just 12 times and at 37 he is nearing the twilight of his career. Injury has prevented promising youngster John Stones from picking up the mantle, but it is presumably he and not Antolin Alcaraz who Martinez will look to in the future. Tim Howard’s injury is a further blow, his lack of experience is being missed between the sticks.

Leighton Baines has seven assists to his name so far this season compared to five in the whole of the last campaign and that’s certainly a positive. His prolific relationship with Steven Pienaar has been disupted through injuries.

Securing Romelu Lukaku’s services on a permanent basis following a successful loan spell at Goodison last season was seen by many as a coup. The big Belgian has six goals so far this season, making him the sides leading scorer. Last season he bagged fifteen goals in 31 games, so he is a bit behind that rate. However, I think it is worth considering that he has been overplayed and may be suffering from some burn out, especially since he featured quite heavily in the World Cup as well. He is winning just 1.4 headers per game this season compared to 2.9 last, perhaps Everton are playing less directly to his strengths or perhaps he is just burnt out.

Last season’s success was built around the solid foundation provided by JamesMcCarthy and Gareth Barry. Barry who also made his loan move permanent in the summer, has provided similar defensive cover this season, with 2.2 tackles and 1.6 interceptions (compared to 2.7 and 1.6 last season) while McCarthy has made the same number of interceptions (1.5) but fewer tackles (1.5 compared to 2.5) than last season.

Last season Everton arguably overachieved, in Martinez’s first year they finished 5^th securing a return to European competition, albeit in the Europa League. That competition has been the reason for Everton’s manic fixture schedule. However, Martinez has refused to hide behind the gruelling schedule of Europe’s second tier intercontinental competition. That said, Everton have picked up just seven of a possible eighteen points in the games following Europa League excursions and three of those came after the Krasnador game when Martinez fielded a youthful side. That record suggests they have been struggling as a result of their extra commitments.

Some of the critiscim levelled at Martinez has been his lack of adaptability, with his side sticking to a passing approach at times when a more direct one may favour them more. Maybe other teams have got used to the way Everton play and have a system to stop them.  In his time at Wigan Martinez showed he was willing to change system, changing to a back three kept them up a few years ago, but he won't dismiss his philosophy so easily. 

With one of the worse defensive records it’s unsurprising that Everton have made fewer tackles and interceptions this season than last (16.4 and 11.3, compared to 19.4 and 12.2). Despite that they have conceded roughly the same number of shots (13 and 13.1) per game as last season, maybe their opponents are finishing better or perhaps getting better opportunities.

What is behind Everton’s poor league performances this season? It’s tough to put it down to one thing, I think the Europa League has undoubtedly taken its toll and injuries have played their part too.  Martinez hasn't been able to name his strongest side or even his strongest back four on as many occassions as he would like. Martinez will be granted more time given his successes last season and he deserves it too. Everton fans will be hopeful of a turnaround in form and maybe a cup run could be just the ticket to get that started. 

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Sanchez vs Costa: who has settled better?

Following another Alexis Sanchez goal to rescue Arsenal, Arsene Wenger  was prompted to say that no player had adapted quicker to the Premier League. Sanchez has nine goals in thirteen Premier League appearances so far for the Gunners, he works out at scoring every 117 minutes on average. He also has three goals in the Champions League so far and Arsenal fans will be hoping he can keep up that rate too.

Of his nine Premier League goals, 5 have come at the Emirates and 4 away from home. Without his goals Arsenal would be 7 points worse off, giving them a points total of 16, the same amount as Villa. Sanchez has scored 41% of Arsenal’s goals so far this season, that outlines how vital he has been to their side.

It’s undoubtedly true that Sanchez has taken to the Premier League like a duck to water, but quicker than anyone else? That is a very bold claim. Let’s compare him to another big summer signing who has hit the ground running and see if Wenger’s claims check out.

The other exciting summer striker signing from La Liga was Diego Costa, the Spanish striker cost Chelsea a hefty £30 million but he is looking worth every penny of it so far.  Costa has eleven Premier League goals so far this season, two more than  Sanchez. That’s from 11 appearances to, meaning Costa has found the net on average every 83 minutes, an unbelievable conversion rate.

Arguably Sanchez plays a deeper role than Costa who is the focal point of Chelsea’s attacks so we’d maybe expect him to get fewer goals. Sanchez has two assists to his name so far this season, Costa has none. Costa creates fewer chances (1.6) than Sanchez (2.6).

Without Costa’s goals Chelsea would only be five points worse off, still top of the league, that probably says more about how good the rest of Chelsea’s team is though. Costa has scored in 8 separate games, bagging a hat trick against Swansea and a couple against Everton. Sanchez too has scored in 8 separate games. There is little difference in the number of shots the two players have per game, Costa with 3.1 and Sanchez with 3.0.

Both players have been praised for their work rate, that has been identified as one of the reasons that they have settled so well in England. Defending from the front has become an important part of the modern striker’s game. Costa averages 0.7 tackles and 0.4 interceptions, Sanchez is yet to make an interception and averages 0.4 tackles per game. Clearly, they are both doing more off the ball than those statistics suggest, it’s more about closing players and putting them under pressure.

Both sides would undoubtedly be worse off without their new talismanic forwards, I think Sanchez is more important to Arsenal right now but that is arguably because they’ve been without Giroud and lack the strength in depth Chelsea have. You still get the feeling Costa isn’t 100% fit.

It’ll be interesting to see how both players fare over Christmas, with both used to having a winter break. Who has settled better? I think Costa settled faster, he grabbed 7 goals in his first four games but Sanchez has certainly caught him up and he is vital to Arsenal right now. That said both have adapted extremely well to the Premier League, they’ve lived up to the hype and their respective price tags.

 Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Blind leading the blind

With all the talent to come through the door at Old Trafford this season the least exciting was probably Daley Blind. This is not a criticism, I’m a huge fan of the Dutchman but he’s not going to light up Old Trafford in the same way that Di Maria or Falcao might, his job however, is probably the most important in this United team.

Against Everton Van Gaal lined up with a midfield of Di Maria, Blind and Valencia, with Mata deployed further forward. That’s leaving a lot of work for Daley Blind, whilst Di Maria and Valencia are industrious and will certainly put in a shift, they are at heart attack minded wide players. Blind is essentially tasked with the job that most teams entrust at least two if not three men to do.

In his 4 Premier League appearances Blind has made an average of 3 tackles and 2.8 interceptions per game. Only Phil Jones and Rafael have made more interceptions and only Jones and Herrera have made more tackles. His importance to the midfield is apparent from that alone. When you add in an average of 3.8 clearances per game, his defensive contributions are added to.

In comparison Di Maria offers little defensively, he’s made just 4 tackles and 7 interceptions in his 5 games at Old Trafford, Valencia fares a little better, with an average of 2.8 tackles and 2.2 interceptions. This shows how much work Blind has to get through, if United wish to control games in the manner they’ve become accustomed to and to stop leaking so many goals they will need more cover in midfield.

There’s no doubt that Blind’s versatility is in part why he was signed, he’s at comfortable at centre back as he is at left back or in the role he currently occupies. Given his versatility it’s not surprising he’s such a well-rounded player.

His work is as much off the ball as it is on the ball, breaking up play is as important as starting attacks. His average pass accuracy is 88.9% and Blind plays an average of 67.8 passes, the 10^th highest of all players in the league. His passing range is varied, he has played 3.3 long balls per game so far, so he can release United on the counter or switch the play if needed. Unsurprisingly, Blind hasn’t created many chances for his team mates, his role is that of the middle man, by occupying space he can receive the ball and feed those who supply the goals.

Presumably Herrera will replace Valencia when fit and that will add some more solidity to the centre of the park. It’s clearly a problem of having such a plethora of attacking talent that fitting all those players in isn’t going to be easy and the solution seems to be removing a man from midfield. At the minute United aren’t a balanced side, there’s too much emphasis on attack and that isn’t sustainable, they’d benefit more from dropping one of the strikers for more midfield cover.

 Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

HIghlighting Manchester City's struggles in Europe

Tuesday’s draw with Roma was the fourth successive time that Manchester City have failed to win their opening home game in the Champions League, that’s surprising given how the Ethiad is a domestic fortress on which  City have built league success. It’s a result which points towards the larger trend of City failing to live up to their domestic prowess in Europe’s elite competition.

Last season was the first time that they managed to make it out of the group stage, it must be said that they have faced tough draws in each of their four seasons in the Champions League, they’ve been pitted against Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund to name but a few.

There has been talk since City reached the Champions League of a lack of experience in the competition letting the side down, and while that may be true of the team it is not true of the players that make it up. Yaya Toure has won the Champions League with Barcelona, Demichelis was part of the Malaga side that progressed so far under Pellegrini a few seasons ago and many of these City players are now entering their fourth year in the competition. These are world class players who have won countless domestic and international trophies, there should be no doubting their ability to produce on the biggest stage and yet doubts remain.

A quick look at the statistics is enough to highlight the disparity between City in the Champions League and Premier League, in all but their first season in the competition they boasted considerably higher possession and pass accuracy in the Premier League than in Europe. Perhaps not surprising given the calibre of opponents is higher in the Champions League and City’s game is not overly based on possession, like Barcelona’s is. Also the fact that this is a sample of 6 games in the Champions League and if two of those are against a Guardiola side it’s understandable that City would have less possession. What it does point to though is that City have to make a shift from being the side that dominates the game to one that is on the back foot when in Europe. Maybe they’re not used to being the underdogs and that change of expectations could cause problems but this also highlights the need to paly differently in Europe to in the Premier League, maybe throw in another midfielder and sacrifice a striker.

Defensively the statistics also point out to less impressive performances in the Champions League. Manchester City have conceded more shots in the Champions League than Premier League in each of their four seasons in the competition. On average there’s also a trend for less tackles in the Champions League, a bit surprising given that they’ve had less of the ball on the whole, suggesting they’re not doing enough without the ball. Although in the past few seasons they have made more interceptions in the Champions League, that hasn’t been the case so far this season, again this supports the call for a 5 man midfield I think.

Going forward there’s cause for concern too, City are having fewer shots in Europe than in the Premier League and also fewer shots on target. That’s disappointing given the amount of attacking talent they’ve amassed. Again, this could be a result of simply playing better opponents more frequently but if City want to be the best in Europe they need to beat the best and should be aiming to play with the attacking swagger we’ve become accustomed to in the Premier League. City are also completing fewer dribbles in the Champions League, they’re being afforded less time and space than they might be used to. Also City are caught offside considerably more when playing in the Champions League than when playing domestically, that ties in with them having less possession and at times playing on the counter, they’ll be looking for long balls in behind more frequently and that would lead to more offsides. More offsides means more attacks will be broken down and is a component in City having fewer shots.

Overall it seems that the grumblings about City’s performances in Europe are justified, whether or not it’s down to them being bad or their opponents being better is tough to say, I feel it’s a combination of the two. Watching City in Europe they look lethargic at times and don’t always look up to the game, almost in awe of their opponents. Whether or not there’s a quick fix is hard to say but it’s looking like it’ll be another tough European campaign ahead of them.

 Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Newcastle shooting themselves in the foot

I was looking through some of the Premier League statistics (as you do) and something caught my eye, the team with the joint highest number of shots per game is Newcastle, only Chelsea and Liverpool have managed more. So why do Alan Pardew’s side find themselves lingering at the foot of the table?

First of all, on average, only 3.3 of those shots have been on target. That’s the fourth worst total in the league, so in fact only 21% of Newcastle’s shots are on target. So more interesting than shots or shots on target is this conversion figure, the number of shots a side is getting on target. When you look at that figure it makes a lot more sense as to why Newcastle sit second bottom and have scored just 5 goals this season.

Ronald Koeman’s Southampton have an impressive conversion rate of 45.5%, the highest in the league, closely followed by Swansea’s of around 41%. Not that surprising given the stellar starts to the season these two sides have made. The side with the lowest conversion is Aston Villa, just 20% of their shots are on target, despite their bright start to the season Villa have scored just 4 goals, their success has been based more on a solid defence, so this shouldn’t be too surprising either.

A further look at Newcastle’s shooting reveals something else interesting and another reason for their lack of goals. Just under half (43%) of their shots have come from outside the area, with 11% of shots coming from within the 6 yard box. It suggests Newcastle are panicking when they get near the box and shooting instead of trying to build up play patiently and work a better opening. This theory is backed up by the fact that just 29% of touches by Newcastle players are in the final third.

Admittedly, this would be okay if Newcastle were playing fast, incisive counter attacking football but this isn’t the case, the build up is laboured but also lacks the patience to work the ball into good positions. They might have themselves caught in a bit of a vicious circle here, especially at home, the fans are rightly upset at the level of performance this season and a backwards pass is more likely to be met with groans than at times when results are going well.

If you compare similar statistics to Southampton the differences are clear. Under Koeman Saints have had 35% of their shots from outside of the box, more shots from inside the box has given them more shots on target and that has led to a greater number of goals. Interestingly, Southampton have the same percentage (29) of touches in the final third. It’s clear that they’re making those touches count more than Newcastle.

Another statistic which highlights Newcastle’s lack of forward creativity is their lack of offsides so far this season, they’ve had just 1 in 6 games. To offer a comparison, Southampton have had 2.3 offsides per game, the second highest in the division. Obviously, you don’t want your players to be offside constantly but a higher number of offsides would suggest players making runs in behind. That rings true with Newcastle, from watching them this season they’ve looked very static going forward, lacking movement or runners from deep, and have also seen their main striker isolated a lot of the time.

Whether or not Pardew can doing anything about this remains to be seen, maybe he should encourage his players to work the ball in to the box and be more patient. To be honest this only half the problem, Newcastle’s defensive concerns are probably more cause for concern.

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com

Yanga-Mbwia shows Newcastle what they're missing

Newcastle have been defensively shoddy so far this season and that’s almost definitely putting it kindly. So far Alan Pardew’s side have shipped 11 goals in 5 games, an average of over 2. Whilst Pardew was widely praised pre-season for the business he carried out, he failed to strengthen defensively, Janmaat was the only defender brought in and that was as a direct replacement for the departing Debuchy.

It was perhaps somewhat surprising then that French defender Mapou Yanga-Mbwia was allowed to leave on transfer deadline day to Roma on a season long loan. Yanga-Mbwia who joined in January 2013 had failed to make an impact at Newcastle, mainly because his first team chances had been limited and when he has been given chances it’s been due to injuries or suspensions and he’s often had to fill in at full back. His versatility is another great trait and another reason why it’s surprising Newcastle let him go on loan, given their lack of options defensively. That said, it’s certainly the best move for the player, he will be hoping for regular football under Rudi Garcia at Roma and could get experience of Champions League football.  

Yanga-Mbwia has made 3 starts since his deadline day move to Italy and Roma have conceded just once in those three games, perhaps it’s worth noting that’s the only goal they’ve let in this season.  His place in the team is currently because of the injury to Davide Astori, however, you feel if his level of performance continues Yanga-Mbwia may be able to cement his place in the starting line up.

“My spell in England wasn’t a success. They don’t see things in the same way, it’sa lot more physical over there.Things are different here in Italy. They playmore football. The Italian league is very similar to Ligue 1. I will try to show that my time in England was simply a mistake.”

In a recent interview Yanga-Mbwia claimed his move to Newcastle had been a mistake and he had struggled to adapt to the physicality of the Premier League, I imagine that wasn’t helped by him playing out of position. He added that the style of football in Italy is more similar to that of France, highlighting the way “They play more football”, presumably that is in reference to a more passing game.

That makes sense given his pass accuracy of 92.3% for Roma and he is making 56 passes per game, he is clearly very comfortable on the ball. However, he is as composed as he is on the ball defensively, making an average of 2 tackles and 2.7 interception per game, figures which are considerably higher than Astori’s (although he has only played one full league game this season).  He has only committed 2 fouls in his 3 games for Roma, that too speaks of the composure and leadership which was a times lacking at Newcastle.

                                                                                                                                  

His statistics are considerably higher than at Newcastle last year where he managed 17 starts. His pass accuracy was just 82% last season, so perhaps he is better suited to a more continental style of football than Newcastle are playing at the minute. He also averaged 1.7 tackles and 1 interceptions per game in his time at St James’ Park last year. His statistics are much more comparable to his time at Montpellier (2.2 tackles, 2.8 interceptions in 2011/12) now he’s at Roma, it seems he’s much more at home on the continent.

Admittedly three games is a very small sample size and it’ll be interesting to see how he does over the course of the season but I can imagine Alan Pardew may be regretting letting him go on loan at the moment. Let’s not forget that this is a player who captained his Montpellier side to the Ligue 1 title and while the player himself has spoken about how he struggled in England who knows how he would have fared given more games at centre back and a regular spell in the team.

Last season Roma finished runners up in Italy and will be hoping to go one better this time. Next up for Yanga-Mbwia and Roma: a trip to the Ethiad, he’ll be hoping they fare much better than Newcastle did when they faced the champions on the opening day of the season.

Statistics courtesy of whoscored.com